Pokymon Posted May 9, 2012 Report Share Posted May 9, 2012 Visa Bulletin is out for June 2012 and the status as predicted: Unavailable. It's unavailble until September 2012. Those who have PD 2010 will have to wait for at least 5 years. There will not be any difference between EB2 and EB3. Porting from EB3 to EB2 can be seen in the inventory. Link to comment
SameerH1Bworker Posted May 10, 2012 Report Share Posted May 10, 2012 It should move from Oct 2012 & 2010 PD may get GC in 1 or 2 years, not 5 years. And pernalguy, I read in the forum that you're leaving this forum & asked others to join ********. What happened, you're still here?? Link to comment
JoeF Posted May 10, 2012 Report Share Posted May 10, 2012 The PD got removed again from travel.state.gov. ANd how long EB2 people will have to wait is far from clear. The PD actually said that they want to have the PD for EB2-I/C back to 2010, what it was before, soon after October. As usual, Pernalguy's frustration causes him to misrepresent things. Link to comment
Illinois_Dude Posted May 10, 2012 Report Share Posted May 10, 2012 Sameer, I am porting my PD of April 2008 from my previous EB3 petition to EB2. When can I expect my GC ? Link to comment
JoeF Posted May 10, 2012 Report Share Posted May 10, 2012 Sameer, I am porting my PD of April 2008 from my previous EB3 petition to EB2. When can I expect my GC ? I don't think they produce crystal ***** anymore... From the (now removed) VB: "Numbers will once again be available for China and India Employment Second preference cases beginning October 1, 2012 under the FY-2013 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the May 1, 2010 date which had been reached in April 2012. Readers should be advised that it is impossible to accurately estimate how long that may take, but current indications are that it would definitely not occur before spring 2013." So, if your PD is in 2008, it should become current in the first half of next fiscal year. Note that this does not necessarily mean that you get your GC the moment the PD becomes current. There seems to be some misunderstanding about that, even among knowledgeable people like Belle. The PD being current just means that an I-485 can get filed, and a filed one can get approved. There may always be other delays related to the I-485 itself. Link to comment
Illinois_Dude Posted May 10, 2012 Report Share Posted May 10, 2012 Thanks Joef. I was not able to file 485 before May 1st as my EB2 PERM was approved just 2 days ago. At this time I am just hoping to file 485 soon so that I can atleast get EAD/AP Link to comment
Illinois_Dude Posted May 10, 2012 Report Share Posted May 10, 2012 Pernal guy ..Please stop making these ridiculous statements. I was shocked to read it until I realized it was from you !! Link to comment
Attorney_6 Posted May 10, 2012 Report Share Posted May 10, 2012 It does not say "wait 5 years for EB2 2010 PDs." It also does not indicate that EB2 is as bad as EB3----and the inventory data are even more clear on that point. The Visa Bulletin said that they would try to move the dates to the May 2010 date as quickly as they can, but that it would not be before spring 2013. So, that is hardly 5 years, even if the estimate is off by many months. And, the inventory data in EB3 shows many, many cases with PDs in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006. For EB2, there are older cases--primarily due to the "upgrade" from EB3 to EB2. But, for example, while EB3 has 30k+ in 2006, EB2 has 759. For 2005, EB3 has 9,514 while EB2 has 264. Hardly the same and most people in EB3 would be happy to trade places with almost anyone in EB2. The dates were simply shifted too far forward, too quickly, so now we have this problem. Link to comment
Pokymon Posted May 10, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 10, 2012 Employment Based Pending Inventory Data for EB2 is as follows: Upto 2005 644 2006 552 2007 4,904 2008 15,136 2009 13,429 2010 4,912 (Jan-Apr) Total 39,577 Visas allocated per year is 2,800 = 14 years to clear all inventories upto 2010. Keep in mind, there will not be any spillover from EB1, because of EB1C. This shows how bad EB2 will be compared to EB3. Any thoughts? Link to comment
aos_rfe Posted May 10, 2012 Report Share Posted May 10, 2012 It does not say "wait 5 years for EB2 2010 PDs." It also does not indicate that EB2 is as bad as EB3----and the inventory data are even more clear on that point. The Visa Bulletin said that they would try to move the dates to the May 2010 date as quickly as they can, but that it would not be before spring 2013. So, that is hardly 5 years, even if the estimate is off by many months. And, the inventory data in EB3 shows many, many cases with PDs in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006. For EB2, there are older cases--primarily due to the "upgrade" from EB3 to EB2. But, for example, while EB3 has 30k+ in 2006, EB2 has 759. For 2005, EB3 has 9,514 while EB2 has 264. Hardly the same and most people in EB3 would be happy to trade places with almost anyone in EB2. The dates were simply shifted too far forward, too quickly, so now we have this problem. :-) Pernalguy/roulraj, data/facts always a b**ch right? Link to comment
tusharvk Posted May 10, 2012 Report Share Posted May 10, 2012 Attorney From the inventory data, we can see your point. For EB2IN, There is a potential glut in 2007 though.There are 4000+ cases pending. So, just wondering how does dos intend to move the dates back to 2010 in spring 2013. They have to clear out 32000 cases pending before they can move the dates that far. Without a lot of supply from EB1IN, it seems difficult. But may be I missed something. Link to comment
Pokymon Posted May 11, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 11, 2012 Let me add to my post above, I haven't considered porting from EB3-EB2. I believe there are more porting taking place. Link to comment
maverick9 Posted May 11, 2012 Report Share Posted May 11, 2012 It looks like Pernalguy's math looks right .. even if all visa numbers available for India (~9800) every year, has to go to EB2, it will take around 5 yrs for 2010 PDs. Am I reading something wrong here? Link to comment
cap-gap Posted May 11, 2012 Report Share Posted May 11, 2012 Hardly the same and most people in EB3 would be happy to trade places with almost anyone in EB2. The dates were simply shifted too far forward, too quickly, so now we have this problem. I noticed on the bulletin(now removed?) that they hope to move the date again to 2010 in the first quarter of next fiscal year..we can only hope they will learn from their mistakes.. Link to comment
Pokymon Posted May 11, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 11, 2012 :-) Pernalguy/roulraj, data/facts always a b**ch right? :-) Pernalguy/roulraj, data/facts always a b**ch right? Are you saying I-485 Inventory Data just published is wrong? Just checking.... Link to comment
SameerH1Bworker Posted May 11, 2012 Report Share Posted May 11, 2012 Employment Based Pending Inventory Data for EB2 is as follows: Upto 2005 644 2006 552 2007 4,904 2008 15,136 2009 13,429 2010 4,912 (Jan-Apr) Total 39,577 Visas allocated per year is 2,800 = 14 years to clear all inventories upto 2010. Keep in mind, there will not be any spillover from EB1, because of EB1C. This shows how bad EB2 will be compared to EB3. Any thoughts? It seems you do not know the procedure how visa numbers are working, Do some research & then make some comments. Check below post http://forum.murthy.com/index.php?/topic/38676-gc-receipt-forcasting/ Link to comment
JoeF Posted May 11, 2012 Report Share Posted May 11, 2012 The demand data is known to be highly unreliable. Trying to get some forecast from that is as foolish as believing the misleading claim of a 70-year wait for EB3. Link to comment
aos_rfe Posted May 11, 2012 Report Share Posted May 11, 2012 Let me add to my post above, I haven't considered porting from EB3-EB2. I believe there are more porting taking place. pernalguy, i think per year is 2,800 = 14 years rule is for eb3 and not eb2? are you confused? or am i? Link to comment
aos_rfe Posted May 11, 2012 Report Share Posted May 11, 2012 pernalguy, i think per year is 2,800 = 14 years rule is for eb3 and not eb2? are you confused? or am i? because lateral, vertical cascading of unused visa n umbers benefit eb2 more than eb3. so i am sure your 14 year calculation is not valid. Am I missing something? Just checking, Could you please clarify? Link to comment
tusharvk Posted May 11, 2012 Report Share Posted May 11, 2012 This is very strange. If demand data is unreliable, why even publish it? Sorry, I don't get this. Link to comment
Attorney_6 Posted May 11, 2012 Report Share Posted May 11, 2012 The extra numbers don't just come from EB1. The numbers from EB4 to go EB5, EB5 goes up to EB1, and EB1 falls down to EB2. EB2 ROW goes over to EB2 India/China. There are just too many factors to try to project it out, with the numbers moving around from one category to the other. Not sure how many "extra" numbers went to India this FY, but it was around 20k extras in the prior 2 years. I have yet to see exact data on this claimed EB1C issue. Even if there is a glut of such cases, you can't project that out as continuing at a similar level for years and years. The I-485 pending chart is quite interesting as a way to visualize the volume. Link to comment
tusharvk Posted May 11, 2012 Report Share Posted May 11, 2012 so, where will the dates be come october 2012? There are a little more than 1000 485s pending till 2006. But if porting occurs rapidly, for the next 4 months, the demand could explode causing glut in 2002. Link to comment
JoeF Posted May 11, 2012 Report Share Posted May 11, 2012 Are you saying I-485 Inventory Data just published is wrong? Just checking.... Lots of lawyers assert that the data is wrong. The bottom line is that you can not make predictions from that data, without a lot of context that is missing from the publication. Link to comment
rkrmst Posted May 12, 2012 Report Share Posted May 12, 2012 Lots of lawyers assert that the data is wrong. The bottom line is that you can not make predictions from that data, without a lot of context that is missing from the publication. i agree with this... it is always very hard with little details to predict. we will have to wait and see whats going to happen. Link to comment
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