What should we expect from the last quarter of this fiscal year?

simplevini

By simplevini,
in AOS & CP : General

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simplevini Member

simplevini

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My PD is mid August 2007. In the last fiscal year's last quarter we had total of 15 months jump(8 months in July + 5 months in August + 2 months in September). At that point of time I calculated that if we get same movement by the end of next fiscal year then hopefully my PD will be current. This year we haven't entered in the last quarter of the fiscal year yet, but we have already started seeing movement. Should I be happy about it and hope for even bigger movements in next few months? Is there a hope that my PD will become current by Sept 2011?

I know its too soon to say anything but please express your views.

Thanks

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Pedro Gonzales Member

Pedro Gonzales

Posted
Posted
Originally posted by jsenthilk:

I have given up on speculating and calculating when mine will become current (EB2-Feb2007). To me, it seems a waste of time, as constantly new factors are coming into play...

Very good point. I have run this analysis several times in the last couple of years and have been proven wrong every time due to new factors. However, there is a benefit to knowing where you are in the queue and if someone else has already put considerable effort towards analyzing the issue, we might as well benefit from their work. Check out the US Non-Immigration board on blogspot. That analysis is far more thorough than my own analysis (which I was quite proud of), and they update the analysis for any new information that comes out. They are less bullish than people on this thread, and think we'll get to March '07 by the end of this fiscal year. My numbers were in that ball park too.

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Pokymon Advanced Member

Pokymon

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TOI:

NEW YORK: The United States may experience reverse brain drain as thousands of Indian IT professionals contemplate returning to India, according to a survey conducted by Corp-Corp.com, a US-based technology job portal.

The finding was based on a survey of more than 1,000 survey respondents of Indian origin, nearly half of which were IT professionals that plan to return to India.

About 50 per cent of the respondents have plans to return soon, while 6.4 per cent of them have already returned to their homeland.

Survey participants included permanent residents, US citizens and work visa holders.

Fifty-one per cent said their decision was based on wanting to rejoin family and 26 per cent cited better opportunities as the reason to return to their homeland.

Around 10 per cent are planning to return for they believe their kids will get a better education in India.

"The results are very important for American businesses because they may face challenges in filling the gap of these resources," said Prabakaran Murugaiah, CEO of Corp-Corp.com.

"Businesses cannot replace an experienced workforce overnight," he said.

The survey results show 69 per cent of visa holders and 57 per cent permanent residents or citizens intend to return.

These are some of the motivation to return to India: Nearly 51 per cent for the return is rejoining their family members in India; 26 per cent for better opportunities in India.

Only 3 per cent says they are returning due to job loss, which is consistent with low unemployment of around 6 per cent in the IT sector even though the generic unemployment is over 8 per cent.

Around 10 per cent are planning their return to provide better education to their kids in India.

There are about two million Indians living in US and many of them hold bachelor or higher degrees.

Indians share a large percentage in the numbers of PhD holders.

Among the Asian Indian population, around 60 per cent are in management or professional occupations.

Murugaiah says, "Many of the returning Indians have aged parents back home to take care. Also, recent economic growth in India with many good opportunities fueled their thought process of heading back."

"In addition to that, many US companies are opening their offices in India and hiring more to target the growing market in Asia. There may be some challenges in filling the gap created by these resources, because we cannot create a 10 years experienced resource the next day," he said.

"However, there are 6 million IT professionals working in the US and this may not pose a bigger impact for the US tech industry. This trend may very well be a win-win situation for both countries," he added.

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sanjay_6patel Member

sanjay_6patel

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Posted

This is my calculation based on what happened in last 2 visa bulletines (May and June)

Visa spills: 12,000

Date moved: 5 months (1.5 in May, 3.5 in June)

It means that 2400 visas to move forward a month.

Expected visa spill in last quarter: 20,000 (same as last year)

Expected date movement: 20000/2400 = 8.33 months

That is June 2007 !!!

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InTransition Member

InTransition

Posted
Posted
Originally posted by sanjay_6patel:

This is my calculation based on what happened in last 2 visa bulletines (May and June)

Visa spills: 12,000

Date moved: 5 months (1.5 in May, 3.5 in June)

It means that 2400 visas to move forward a month.

Expected visa spill in last quarter: 20,000 (same as last year)

Expected date movement: 20000/2400 = 8.33 months

That is June 2007 !!!

From the USCIS Visa Bulletin:

"Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011. "

Also, what the above calculation misses is that last year, India was way behind China so all the unused numbers were used towards India EB2. Now with this visa bulletin, India has finally caught up with China. Now the 20K available visas (assuming that there are that many) will be divided in such a way that India & China EB2 dates move together. For this reason, I doubt that we can expect the same sort of movement as last year for India.

Also, I guess the "Upgrade" traffic has been significant enough this year where the movement might be affected drastically.

Overall this early movement, IMO, has been the result of the 12K unused EB1 visas coming our way. For the remainder of the fiscal year, I don't know if we can keep up with the same pace. (Although I certainly hope we do)

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