Visa movement going forward

[buster_123]

Hello all GC seekers,

Here is what I found on January Inventory

All Chargeabilty:

EB1 pending ~8000 per year quota 40,040 Excess unused: 32,000

EB2 pending -44,500 per year quota 40,040

Extra demand: 4500

EB3 pending -127,000 per year quota 40,040

Extra Demand: 87,000

Now it there are few questions which arises for the situation at the end of Spetember 2011, if experts can answer:

1. this is clear that ~32,000 visa numbers will flow to EB2 category first - Does this mean EB2 will get 40,040+32,000= 72,040 visa numners.

2. Given EB2 pending at 44,500, does this mean that EB2 will move past 2007 for countires like India, China .....?

3. Given per country limit of 7%, a country can be allotted a max of 25,620 visa numbers inclusive of all categories, India has 24,500 and China has 11,000 visa numbers pending in EB2 itself. Does this mean EB2 India may not move beyond 2007?

4. Is it fair assessment that excess visa numbers will not flow to EB3? Is there any possibility any visa numbers can flow to EB3.

Let the discussion begin.

[indgold]

Originally posted by buster_123:

Hello all GC seekers,

Here is what I found on January Inventory

All Chargeabilty:

EB1 pending ~8000 per year quota 40,040 Excess unused: 32,000

EB2 pending -44,500 per year quota 40,040

Extra demand: 4500

EB3 pending -127,000 per year quota 40,040

Extra Demand: 87,000

Now it there are few questions which arises for the situation at the end of Spetember 2011, if experts can answer:

1. this is clear that ~32,000 visa numbers will flow to EB2 category first - Does this mean EB2 will get 40,040+32,000= 72,040 visa numners.

2. Given EB2 pending at 44,500, does this mean that EB2 will move past 2007 for countires like India, China .....?

3. Given per country limit of 7%, a country can be allotted a max of 25,620 visa numbers inclusive of all categories, India has 24,500 and China has 11,000 visa numbers pending in EB2 itself. Does this mean EB2 India may not move beyond 2007?

4. Is it fair assessment that excess visa numbers will not flow to EB3? Is there any possibility any visa numbers can flow to EB3.

Let the discussion begin.

No discussions please, when it comes we will take it...No low or high expectations.. that would be better..

[strynz]

No discussions please, when it comes we will take it...No low or high expectations.. that would be better..

somebody wants discussions. If you dont, please keep away from the thread.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Originally posted by buster_123:

Hello all GC seekers,

Here is what I found on January Inventory

All Chargeabilty:

EB1 pending ~8000 per year quota 40,040 Excess unused: 32,000

EB2 pending -44,500 per year quota 40,040

Extra demand: 4500

EB3 pending -127,000 per year quota 40,040

Extra Demand: 87,000

Now it there are few questions which arises for the situation at the end of Spetember 2011, if experts can answer:

1. this is clear that ~32,000 visa numbers will flow to EB2 category first - Does this mean EB2 will get 40,040+32,000= 72,040 visa numners.

2. Given EB2 pending at 44,500, does this mean that EB2 will move past 2007 for countires like India, China .....?

3. Given per country limit of 7%, a country can be allotted a max of 25,620 visa numbers inclusive of all categories, India has 24,500 and China has 11,000 visa numbers pending in EB2 itself. Does this mean EB2 India may not move beyond 2007?

4. Is it fair assessment that excess visa numbers will not flow to EB3? Is there any possibility any visa numbers can flow to EB3.

Let the discussion begin.

1. Your estimate of 32,000 spill over from EB1 is excessively optimistic. Oppie himself mentioned that 12,000 spillover was expected for 3 Qs of FY2011, so one would expect about 16,000 spill over for the full year.

2. Yes this would all spill over to EB2s, all to India and China.

3. No percountry limits don't apply to spill over of visa numbers. So the 7% limit does not apply here.

4. There is too long a queue of EB2 applicants for there to be any spill over to EB3. In fact, my numbers say that the EB1 and EB2 ROW spill overs each year is less than the number of EB2 I & C applicants each year, so the EB2 backlog never goes away, so EB2 never becomes current so EB3 does not get any spill over. Also, the EB3 to EB2 porters appear to be significantly more than originally anticipated, so that slows this even further.

The best analysis i've seen online is on blogspot. Google "US Non-Immigrants" and check out the second link that shows up. Really good analysis, better than anything i've done myself.

[simplevini]

I desperately wish that PD for EB2 move past 2007!