How To Interpret Demand Data?

aruche

By aruche,
in AOS & CP : General

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aruche Member

aruche

Posted
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Hi all,

I am a newbie whose PD is in 2011 (EB2-I). I am new to this forum and have been reading through all the posts. I have seen people talk a lot about Demand Data issued by USCIS. I could never understand the data. Recently updated one shows EB2I cumulative demand before 2012 as 102. What does that mean exactly? Is it that there are only 102 I485's before 2012 yet to be adjudicated? EB3-I has a figure in ten thousands (Maybe it's literal). Does that mean that even EB2I figure is literal?

Any clarifications would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks :)

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tusharvk Advanced Member

tusharvk

Posted
Posted

Hi all,

I am a newbie whose PD is in 2011 (EB2-I). I am new to this forum and have been reading through all the posts. I have seen people talk a lot about Demand Data issued by USCIS. I could never understand the data. Recently updated one shows EB2I cumulative demand before 2012 as 102. What does that mean exactly? Is it that there are only 102 I485's before 2012 yet to be adjudicated? EB3-I has a figure in ten thousands (Maybe it's literal). Does that mean that even EB2I figure is literal?

Any clarifications would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks :)

I do not think they are literal. It shows the number of cases to be adjudicated. But the number can grow as more approved perm cases get in the pipeline. Also, the number does not include the number of cases which will go through cp.

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JoeF Advanced Member

JoeF

Posted
Posted

It indeed means the number of applications they have received up to the date listed.

I do know that 102 for EB2-India looks very low. I had some discussion with a friend about that as well. But that's the reason for advancing the PD so much. They want to get more applications to fill the pipeline.

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JoeF Advanced Member

JoeF

Posted
Posted

It just means that on January 2012 (when the PD moved from January 2009 to January 2010) the total demand, in terms of I-485 applications, was 102 for India EB2. This was the demand for period Jan 2009 to Jan 2010.

No, it was the demand from USCIS for visa numbers up to Jan. 5. That's for pending I-485s that are ready for approval, i.e., for applications that were most likely with PDs from before March 2008, the December cutoff date. The cutoff in January (Jan 2009) was just active for 5 days, so applications filed from Jan 1 to Jan 5 were unlikely to already be approved.

And this is not that surprising. The economy went downhill in 2008, so not that many EB2 applications were started in 2008.

You have to look at the demand data in the next couple of months to see how many applications are there from 2009.

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aruche Member

aruche

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Posted

Thank you tusharvk, JoeF and GlenLIVEit for your responses.

GlenLIVEit, I think this is the demand data from March 2008 to Jan 1st 2009 period as people with PDs from Jan 1st 2009 through Jan 1st 2010 will start applying in Feb 2012 (as they become current only in Feb) and this data is as of Jan 5th 2012.

Nevertheless, according to stats, 2009 had equally low filings. Maybe, USCIS will move even further in next bulletin because of low filings in that period.

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isitposs2012 Member

isitposs2012

Posted
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It just means that on January 2012 (when the PD moved from January 2009 to January 2010) the total demand, in terms of I-485 applications, was 102 for India EB2. This was the demand for period Jan 2009 to Jan 2010.

Hi Glen, not sure I follow this explanation. On 6th of Jan 2012, the Feb 2012 bulletin was announced and it moved the PD for EB2 from Jan 2009 to Jan 2010 - 12 months advancement. now till Dec 31st 2011, only those I-485s were applied in EB2 where the PD is upto 15Mar 2008. so, the 102 demand might indicate the no. of 485s received by end of Dec 2011 for PDs upto that date in Mar 2008. I don't see how USCIS could have calculated I-485 demand for the next 9 months until Jan 2009 when majority of the folks whose PD got current in Jan 2012 bulletin have not filed their respective 485s by 6th of Jan 2012. on ********.com, I can see about 90 cases for I-485 under EB2 applied at Nebraska service center alone for filings in Dec 2011. and I understand there could be cases for PDs before Nov 2007 as well. so the 102 number looks quite less but it could mean something else. I'd appreciate if you and other advanced members can comment on this and help us all understand the logic.

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mike999 Advanced Member

mike999

Posted
Posted

As posted by Jonty007 on other website.

"Demand data numbers are low because demand data numbers only include pre-adjudicated cases. The demand data will only show the applicants which are already pre-adjudicated (sent all their documents to USCIS, FP done, Medicals done, have undergone security clearance, background checks have been completed, RFEs have been responded to etc. etc.). Basically, those applicants are the one who are just ready to be assigned a visa number and given green card.

Typically, it takes on average 4-6 months for USCIS to pre-adjudicate the cases. If for some reason, the applicant gets an RFE or there is some problem with security clearance, than expect it to be even longer than that. For an example, a person who has sent the application to USCIS in June 2011 will be expected to get pre-adjudicated in December 2011 if everything goes smooth. If that person is pre-adjudicated than he will show up in the demand data.

Now, we know that there will be many people (probably in thousands) who filed their applications in October, November and December 2011 and sent it to USCIS. These people will not show up in the demand data because they are not pre-adjudicated yet and it simply means that even though they may have sent all their documents, USCIS is still working on their applications.

In February, when March VB will come out, it will be about 5 months for people who filed in October and the demand data released for March VB should show us a higher demand provided the demand destruction is not huge. Demand Data released in March for April VB should show us even higher demand again provided the demand destruction is not huge.

Now, the demand destruction can be due to multiple things. People changing jobs and filing the PERM again (not porting but starting the entire process again), people getting laid off and going back home, people abandoning their GC process because of frustration, people going back home due to better opportunities, multiple PERMs like husband and wife both have PERMs filed, people updating to EB1, people getting married to EB2ROW candidates, GC holders, US citizens etc. No body knows what is the demand destruction right now.

Demand is low in the demand data as expected. I think demand data for next month and the month after will give us a clear picture. Also I-485 inventory once released will make it even clearer. In my opinion, this month's VB movement will be at Mr. CO's discretion and if the demand destruction is not huge than retrogression is imminent from next VB. If the demand destruction is moderate than the dates may stall for the rest of the FY2012 starting from next few months. Only if the demand destruction is of mammoth size, than the dates will continue to move forward. I hope the third scenario is true."

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