Visa Bulletin Oct 2013

[joe30t]

No changes to India. EB2 15-June-2008

EB3 22-Sep-2003

 

No CIR in sight. We are back to square one. I am exploring Canadian immigration.

[SameerH1Bworker]

I think Canada is better option now. It takes hell lot of time to get GC. I think now US just wants our tax money without giving us any benefit.

[tusharvk]

For canada, people need to hurry. There is point based but also quota system for this year especially if one does not have a job offer.

[omshiv]

I think now US just wants our tax money without giving us any benefit.

 

I'm sure you are getting all the Benefits from your Tax Money...You drive on Excellent Roads, a Free Library, Free Schools for your kinds...and a lot more. 

 

I can understand your frustration...but people have and have been waiting patiently for years to get their GC...Nobody said it comes for FREE.

[SameerH1Bworker]

For canada, people need to hurry. There is point based but also quota system for this year especially if one does not have a job offer.

not all category falls under this. The most H1Bs are in IT/Computer and canada does not have any category for the worker with IT/Computer software background.

[tusharvk]

back to the visa bulletin:

it is indeed encouraging that the dates have moved forward so much and stayed there for the month of october (FY2014).

That suggests that the dos\cis expect the available visa numbers in 2013 will likely clear the backlog of 485s till 08 for EB2india.

 

The fear of eb3->eb2 upgrade which held the dates stuck to 04 for majority of FY 2013 was either overblown or there are some additional numbers spilled over from FB that will still be available for FY2014 (at least for a part of it).

[kalvel]

back to the visa bulletin:

it is indeed encouraging that the dates have moved forward so much and stayed there for the month of october (FY2014).

That suggests that the dos\cis expect the available visa numbers in 2013 will likely clear the backlog of 485s till 08 for EB2india.

 

The fear of eb3->eb2 upgrade which held the dates stuck to 04 for majority of FY 2013 was either overblown or there are some additional numbers spilled over from FB that will still be available for FY2014 (at least for a part of it).

I dont think they kept the dates same, so they can clear all of them. I believe its just for getting demand from porting.

[tusharvk]

I dont think they kept the dates same, so they can clear all of them. I believe its just for getting demand from porting.

where is this demand everyone keeps talking about?

The dates were kept at 04 for a long time and leaped forward to 2008 due to the spillover in the last 2 months of 2013 FY. But what about 2014 FY? are there excess numbers available?

[catx]

where is this demand everyone keeps talking about? The dates were kept at 04 for a long time and leaped forward to 2008 due to the spillover in the last 2 months of 2013 FY. But what about 2014 FY? are there excess numbers available?

 

The first day of FY 2014 is today, and with it the new annual quota of visa numbers, so any excess visa numbers available for spillover to other preference categories will not be determined until toward the end of the fiscal year, i.e. next summer (2014) at the earliest.

[tusharvk]

The first day of FY 2014 is today, and with it the new annual quota of visa numbers, so any excess visa numbers available for spillover to other preference categories will not be determined until toward the end of the fiscal year, i.e. next summer (2014) at the earliest.

right.

And the date for eb2india is still in 08 and did not retrogress back. Either there was spill over or the fear of the eb3->eb2 porting is overblown.

We can know in a week what happens to nov 2013 vb.

[tusharvk]

no backward movement for eb2 india. lack of demand is the likely reason.

Plenty of room for eb3->eb2 upgrades since eb3 is stuck in 2003.

[catx]

no backward movement for eb2 india. lack of demand is the likely reason.

Plenty of room for eb3->eb2 upgrades since eb3 is stuck in 2003.

 

I would not assume a "lack of demand" is the reason, likely or otherwise.  While demand data has been recently published, there is no current I-485 pending inventory report available, which is a better estimate of the demand.  Further, it is just as likely that the Department of State (DoS) is holding dates steady at the beginning of the fiscal year to get an estimate of the demand from porting of EB3 to EB2 and first time EB2 India application filings for determining how they should advance or regress the cut-off date.

 

 

However, this all just pure specualion

[a0756944]

Here is my observation, and it is pretty consistent. There is a trend in GC approvals like EB-2 means 5year time, and EB-3 means 10year time from Labor priroity date. If you look back, since 2005 it is going on. EB-3 with priority 2003 are getting GC in 2013, 2004 will get in 2014, 2005 in 2015. EB-2 with priority 2008 are getting GC in 2013, 2009 will get in 2014, 2010 in 2015.

 

-Swamy

[tusharvk]

I would not assume a "lack of demand" is the reason, likely or otherwise.  While demand data has been recently published, there is no current I-485 pending inventory report available, which is a better estimate of the demand.  Further, it is just as likely that the Department of State (DoS) is holding dates steady at the beginning of the fiscal year to get an estimate of the demand from porting of EB3 to EB2 and first time EB2 India application filings for determining how they should advance or regress the cut-off date.

 

 

However, this all just pure specualion

not sure how much speculation it is.

Let us go back to the gloomy days of september 2012 when all hope seemed to be lost. DOS had earlier indicated that as soon as FY2013 begins they will try to bring the dates to where they had been for majority of FY2012. to the shock and dismay of people, the dates had gone back to 2004 for EB2IN.

Ultimately thousands of ununsed numbers were found spilled over and in the last 2 months of FY2013 the dates jumped ahead substantially.

Then the numbers got exhausted as per murthy newsflash just a few days before FY2013 got concluded.

Now, we find that the dates are not moving backward. Two alternatives: 1) spill over is available (EB2IN per month is not that big to satisfy the demand by itself). 2) demand is lacking and the waiters have already been exhausted.

I did not read anything about a spill over this year; if someone has, please suggest a link.

Porting estimate is available even without holding the dates steady (having uscis count the number of 140s approved with PD porting).

The date has been in 08 for ~ 4 months.

[catx]

Porting estimate is available even without holding the dates steady (having uscis count the number of 140s approved with PD porting).

The date has been in 08 for ~ 4 months.

 

While it seems completely reasonable that the USCIS should, would, and could determine the demand from EB3 to EB2 porting -- they don't. Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the Department of State (DoS), who is responsible for the monthly Visa Bulletins has stated as much.

 

Again, at the beginning of the fiscal year and after a significant forward movement it is common for the DoS to hold steady on the cut-off dates on the Visa Bulletin to gauge the demand, and then advance or regress cut-off dates as they deem necessary.

[catx]

Here is my observation, and it is pretty consistent. There is a trend in GC approvals like EB-2 means 5year time, and EB-3 means 10year time from Labor priroity date. If you look back, since 2005 it is going on. EB-3 with priority 2003 are getting GC in 2013, 2004 will get in 2014, 2005 in 2015. EB-2 with priority 2008 are getting GC in 2013, 2009 will get in 2014, 2010 in 2015.

 

-Swamy

 

While looking at long term trends is generally a good thing, these linear predictions (1) assume a level of equilibrium between demand and the number of available permanent residency visas (green cards), which cannot be said to be true, and (2) do not consider anomalies such as the infamous July 2007 Visa Bulletin fiasco, which created such a huge backlog in I-485 adjustment of status filings that cannot be processed until their priority date becomes current again, thereby restricting reasonable advancement of the cut-off date until it passes the July 2007 date.

[tusharvk]

While it seems completely reasonable that the USCIS should, would, and could determine the demand from EB3 to EB2 porting -- they don't. Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the Department of State (DoS), who is responsible for the monthly Visa Bulletins has stated as much.

 

Again, at the beginning of the fiscal year and after a significant forward movement it is common for the DoS to hold steady on the cut-off dates on the Visa Bulletin to gauge the demand, and then advance or regress cut-off dates as they deem necessary.

was there a recent pronouncement from mr oppenheim?

You could be correct but given that there is no backward movement +no spill over suggests low demand (i.e. currently not enough 485s on file to exhaust the monthly quota)

[tusharvk]

Here is my observation, and it is pretty consistent. There is a trend in GC approvals like EB-2 means 5year time, and EB-3 means 10year time from Labor priroity date. If you look back, since 2005 it is going on. EB-3 with priority 2003 are getting GC in 2013, 2004 will get in 2014, 2005 in 2015. EB-2 with priority 2008 are getting GC in 2013, 2009 will get in 2014, 2010 in 2015.

 

-Swamy

you do not need to go back very far. Just for a major chunk of FY 2012, the dates stagnated around september 2004 and did not move until extra supply of several thousand came.

[catx]

was there a recent pronouncement from mr oppenheim?

You could be correct but given that there is no backward movement +no spill over suggests low demand (i.e. currently not enough 485s on file to exhaust the monthly quota)

 

The determination of preference category cut-off dates in the monthly Visa Bulletin is anything but an intuitive or straight forward process.  There are many complicating and artificial factors.  For example ...

 

The USCIS "demand" and "backlog" are not what a reasonable person would think, but their own definitions these terms with respect to permanent residency visas (so they present a better picture that the actual situation).

 

The determination of Visa Bulletin cut-off dates is a (inexplicably) disjointed process between the Department of State (DoS) who are responsible issuing visa numbers and consular processing and the USCIS who are responsible for adjustment of status processing.  This can lead to the 'calculation' and appearance of low demand, when in fact the real demand is anything but low.

 

There is an article the Internet that describes in a sufficiently detailed and clear way the "Immigrant Visas Available Under the Annual Quota", including Visa "Supply", Visa "Demand", and Calculating Visa Bulletin Cutoff Date Movement. (Unfortunately, I cannot post the link.) The article is a few years old, but remains completely applicable.

 

One more point, permanent residency visas are an annual quota that is allocated by the DoS quarterly (versus monthly) with the law restricting that no more than 27% of the available visas maybe issued in any of the first 3 quarters.

[tusharvk]

ok. since you said that Oppenheim said that uscis should count the 140 but has not yet..so I was asking for the referred link.

Yes there are several factors. The process is driven by demand and supply though.

With no spill over, the supply is quite low as you correctly pointed out ( at most 27% for Q1,2 and 3 right?)

Demand can be counted and is indeed counted by USCIS if there is a sudden injection of numbers from spill over. In FY13, for example, in the last quarter there was a sudden injection of supply. At that time, internally cis must have g one through the pending 485s and evaluated how many they have to soak in all the excess supply. Clearly, with just a few days to spare in september, the numbers got over and this suggests they did a good job in their determination.

Unlike the summer 07 VB fiasco.

There is no intuition being applied here. Mr Oppenheim gives clear indication during interaction meetings with AILA and VB itself states these facts clearly in advance if they see sudden injection of supply or very high demand. There is no ambiguity about what is revealed to public through these channels.

Lastly regarding monthly quota: so the quarterly quota has to be somehow linked to monthly allotment correct? Or they want to use up all the numbers for a given quarter on the 1st day of that quarter?

Coming back to the issue at hand: For 2 months in FY14, the dates have not gone back. This is positive sign and encouraging for those who missed filing windows last time. As for approvals, we may see not many if there are not any so called pre-adjudicated 485s left to be approved. They may want to approve the eb3->eb2 ported 140s before coming to the conclusion about whether to move the dates for\backward.