Visa Bulletin is out and EB2 India - Unavailable until September 2012

Pokymon

By Pokymon,
in AOS & CP : General

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Pokymon Advanced Member

Pokymon

Posted
Posted

Visa Bulletin is out for June 2012 and the status as predicted: Unavailable.

It's unavailble until September 2012. Those who have PD 2010 will have to wait for at least 5 years. There will not be any difference between EB2 and EB3. Porting from EB3 to EB2 can be seen in the inventory.

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JoeF Advanced Member

JoeF

Posted
Posted

The PD got removed again from travel.state.gov.

ANd how long EB2 people will have to wait is far from clear. The PD actually said that they want to have the PD for EB2-I/C back to 2010, what it was before, soon after October.

As usual, Pernalguy's frustration causes him to misrepresent things.

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JoeF Advanced Member

JoeF

Posted
Posted

Sameer,

I am porting my PD of April 2008 from my previous EB3 petition to EB2. When can I expect my GC ?

I don't think they produce crystal ***** anymore...

From the (now removed) VB:

"Numbers will once again be available for China and India Employment Second preference cases beginning October 1, 2012 under the FY-2013 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the May 1, 2010 date which had been reached in April 2012. Readers should be advised that it is impossible to accurately estimate how long that may take, but current indications are that it would definitely not occur before spring 2013."

So, if your PD is in 2008, it should become current in the first half of next fiscal year.

Note that this does not necessarily mean that you get your GC the moment the PD becomes current. There seems to be some misunderstanding about that, even among knowledgeable people like Belle. The PD being current just means that an I-485 can get filed, and a filed one can get approved. There may always be other delays related to the I-485 itself.

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Attorney_6 Advanced Member

Attorney_6

Posted
Posted

It does not say "wait 5 years for EB2 2010 PDs." It also does not indicate that EB2 is as bad as EB3----and the inventory data are even more clear on that point.

The Visa Bulletin said that they would try to move the dates to the May 2010 date as quickly as they can, but that it would not be before spring 2013. So, that is hardly 5 years, even if the estimate is off by many months.

And, the inventory data in EB3 shows many, many cases with PDs in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006. For EB2, there are older cases--primarily due to the "upgrade" from EB3 to EB2. But, for example, while EB3 has 30k+ in 2006, EB2 has 759. For 2005, EB3 has 9,514 while EB2 has 264.

Hardly the same and most people in EB3 would be happy to trade places with almost anyone in EB2. The dates were simply shifted too far forward, too quickly, so now we have this problem.

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Pokymon Advanced Member

Pokymon

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Posted

Employment Based Pending Inventory Data for EB2 is as follows:

Upto 2005 644

2006 552

2007 4,904

2008 15,136

2009 13,429

2010 4,912 (Jan-Apr)

Total 39,577

Visas allocated per year is 2,800 = 14 years to clear all inventories upto 2010. Keep in mind, there will not be any spillover from EB1, because of EB1C.

This shows how bad EB2 will be compared to EB3.

Any thoughts?

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aos_rfe Member

aos_rfe

Posted
Posted

It does not say "wait 5 years for EB2 2010 PDs." It also does not indicate that EB2 is as bad as EB3----and the inventory data are even more clear on that point.

The Visa Bulletin said that they would try to move the dates to the May 2010 date as quickly as they can, but that it would not be before spring 2013. So, that is hardly 5 years, even if the estimate is off by many months.

And, the inventory data in EB3 shows many, many cases with PDs in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006. For EB2, there are older cases--primarily due to the "upgrade" from EB3 to EB2. But, for example, while EB3 has 30k+ in 2006, EB2 has 759. For 2005, EB3 has 9,514 while EB2 has 264.

Hardly the same and most people in EB3 would be happy to trade places with almost anyone in EB2. The dates were simply shifted too far forward, too quickly, so now we have this problem.

:-) Pernalguy/roulraj, data/facts always a b**ch right?

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tusharvk Advanced Member

tusharvk

Posted
Posted

Attorney

From the inventory data, we can see your point.

For EB2IN, There is a potential glut in 2007 though.There are 4000+ cases pending. So, just wondering how does dos intend to move the dates back to 2010 in spring 2013. They have to clear out 32000 cases pending before they can move the dates that far. Without a lot of supply from EB1IN, it seems difficult. But may be I missed something.

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cap-gap Advanced Member

cap-gap

Posted
Posted

Hardly the same and most people in EB3 would be happy to trade places with almost anyone in EB2. The dates were simply shifted too far forward, too quickly, so now we have this problem.

I noticed on the bulletin(now removed?) that they hope to move the date again to 2010 in the first quarter of next fiscal year..we can only hope they will learn from their mistakes..

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SameerH1Bworker Advanced Member

SameerH1Bworker

Posted
Posted

Employment Based Pending Inventory Data for EB2 is as follows:

Upto 2005 644

2006 552

2007 4,904

2008 15,136

2009 13,429

2010 4,912 (Jan-Apr)

Total 39,577

Visas allocated per year is 2,800 = 14 years to clear all inventories upto 2010. Keep in mind, there will not be any spillover from EB1, because of EB1C.

This shows how bad EB2 will be compared to EB3.

Any thoughts?

It seems you do not know the procedure how visa numbers are working, Do some research & then make some comments. Check below post

http://forum.murthy.com/index.php?/topic/38676-gc-receipt-forcasting/

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aos_rfe Member

aos_rfe

Posted
Posted

pernalguy,

i think per year is 2,800 = 14 years rule is for eb3 and not eb2?

are you confused? or am i?

because lateral, vertical cascading of unused visa n umbers benefit eb2 more than eb3.

so i am sure your 14 year calculation is not valid. Am I missing something? Just checking, Could you please clarify?

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Attorney_6 Advanced Member

Attorney_6

Posted
Posted

The extra numbers don't just come from EB1. The numbers from EB4 to go EB5, EB5 goes up to EB1, and EB1 falls down to EB2. EB2 ROW goes over to EB2 India/China.

There are just too many factors to try to project it out, with the numbers moving around from one category to the other. Not sure how many "extra" numbers went to India this FY, but it was around 20k extras in the prior 2 years.

I have yet to see exact data on this claimed EB1C issue. Even if there is a glut of such cases, you can't project that out as continuing at a similar level for years and years.

The I-485 pending chart is quite interesting as a way to visualize the volume.

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JoeF Advanced Member

JoeF

Posted
Posted

Are you saying I-485 Inventory Data just published is wrong? Just checking....

Lots of lawyers assert that the data is wrong.

The bottom line is that you can not make predictions from that data, without a lot of context that is missing from the publication.

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rkrmst Member

rkrmst

Posted
Posted

Lots of lawyers assert that the data is wrong.

The bottom line is that you can not make predictions from that data, without a lot of context that is missing from the publication.

i agree with this... it is always very hard with little details to predict. we will have to wait and see whats going to happen.

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