EB2 calculation for Year 2012 based on DOL facts

[debo]

This is my first post and I am not sure if this is the correct place to discuss this

I have downloaded a mdb file from the DOL website which shows how many people have applied for labor from all countries and whose labor approvals has been approved from 1st - Oct - 2007 to 30 Sep 2008 and 1st Oct 2008 to 30-Sep-09.

These numbers below are based on approval dates and not the priority dates.

Total # from 1st - Oct - 2007 to 30 Sep 2008 (includes all the countries without filter) is 49206.

Out of this Indian and China has 19897

Only India 16569

Total # from 1st - Oct - 2008 to 30 Sep 2009 (includes all the countries without filter) is 29503.

Out of this Indian + China has 13499

Only India 11387

So in all there are 27956 people from India who have filed and their labor got approved before or on 30th September 09. So based on my assumption if i take 50% of 27956 apprx 14000 people are waiting in eb2 category from approval 1st Oct 2007 till 30 Sep 2009

My 2 cents on the cut off dates

Jan 2012 : 15th July 2008

Feb 2012 : 30th Aug 2008

March 2012 and ahead I am not so sure

Need some inputs from gurus, as to what do they think about the future movements

[bigsurhwy1]

what is the URL for this data? These numbers are scary!!! I was hoping/thinking that 2008/2009 will have less I-140 approvals

[debo]

these are labors approved from Oct 1 2007 to Sep 30 2009

[gandhip]

Hi,

I did analysis on Perm data from 2007 to 2010 for 4 years (http://www.flcdatace...m/CasePerm.aspx). The data was filtered out for only India.

Key Points:

1) Post june 2007 there is a new law of expired perm if i140 is not filed in 180 days of perm approval. So we need to focus just on Certified PERM application and do not consider Certified-expired as they are out of picture.

2) I did analysis on 2007 (oct 1 2006 to sept 30 2007) data to verify my analysis for pending 485 inventory. In 2007 period there were 24573 perm application were certified and none were expired. you can verify it by adding inventory data from May 26 2011 (http://www.uscis.gov...June%202011.pdf). There were 15330 (EB2) and 8647(EB3) = 23977(total) application pending. So 596 people are missing from 485 inventory compared to perm data from same period which should be added to inventory after their priority date got current.

3) 2007 data tells up 64% applications were Eb2. So I have assumed 70% EB2 applications in following years.

PERM Data.

Oct 2007 - sept 2008 - 7198 (certified) + 9371 (certified expired) = 16569 (total)

Oct 2008 - sept 2009 - 6403 (certified) + 4984 (certified expired) = 11378 (total)

Oct 2009 - sept 2010 - 14872 (certified) + 14058 (certified expired) = 28930 (total)

Assuming 70% application from EB2 and removing Certified-expired application, Total application for which I140 is applied

Oct 2007 - sept 2008 - 5038 (EB2)

Oct 2008 - sept 2009 - 4482 (EB2)

Oct 2009 - sept 2010 - 10410 (EB2)

Adding 2.2 multiplication factor for family member and 80% approval rate for I140. Total application eligible for I485 will be

Oct 2007 - sept 2008 - 8868 (EB2)

Oct 2008 - sept 2009 - 7888 (EB2)

Oct 2009 - sept 2010 - 18322 (EB2)

This will Add another 35000 application till sept 30, 2010 and another 500 from July 2007 to sept 30, 2007. We are talking about approximately 35-36k I485 application..

Other factors to consider

1) Porting from EB3 to EB2. - each year approximately 200-300 apllications are being ported.

2) Demand in EB1, EB2 (ROW and China), EB4 and EB5 - demand from EB1 has reduced drastically as it has been more and more dificult to get approval in EB1, EB2 china demand has also reduced (it is half of India), EB5 demand is increasing. Considering all this I am assuming atleast 20000-25000 EB2 visas for India each year.

Based on above calulactions and assumption I would bet that people who have priority date of Jan 2011 should consider waiting another 2 years.

Sept 2012 - It should clear up to oct 2009

Sept 2013 - It should clear up to oct 2010

End of 2013, jan 2011 people can expect applying for I485.

[debo]

Good Analysis ....but i think we still have to take Certified expired into consideration .....i know there are duplicate labor filing ......for ex in my case i see 2 labors for me out of which i didnt use the first one .....but I am sure certified expired does not mean they have not filed for I140. I am assuming we should take into factor 80% approval of 9371,4984 and 14058.

Because i can see under my labor case the status as certified expired but i have approved I140 ....

I think the ones we see certified are the ones whose labor got approved after some time or may be they went throug Audit it took more time for them to apply

Assuming (70% in eb2 - 5% of labors were duplicate) 65% of (16569 + 11378) only looking till Sept 09 = 18165 eb2 applications .....

But again my assumptions could be incorrect

[gandhip]

Hi,

This is the transcript from dol website. (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/perm.cfm)

"After the labor certification application is certified by DOL, it should be submitted to the USCIS service center with a Form I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker. The certification has a validity period of 180-days and expires if not submitted to USCIS within this period. "

I am not sure why your perm application shows certified expired eventhough you have approved i140.. did you file for I140 within 180 days? or it may be the another perm from different company...

I think you are also suppose to submit perm approval as evdence with 485 application. Make sure you perm doesn't have expired status..

[tulika21]

Hi,

Given that Visa bulletin for Dec 2011 shows EB2 : 15 Mar 2008, does this impact your analysis? My priority date is Dec 2010, I was wondering if it could get current sooner than Dec 2013. Thoughts?

Thanks!

[debo]

thats too far and I dont have any numbers approved post September 2009. I am sure DOL must have shared those somewhere on their website.